65th Annual STS (2005-2006)
Finalists
Carmiel Effron Schickler

NEW YORK
Carmiel Effron Schickler, 18, of Port Washington, entered the Intel Science Talent Search with a behavioral and social sciences project that explored Doran's Power-Cycle theory, which states that nations behave predictably when undergoing major shifts in power called critical points. According to Doran, war is more likely during these shifts in relative power. Carmiel quantitatively expanded the theory, and showed that between 1700 and 1920 all violent conflict, not just war, increased during critical points for the nine most powerful nations in the world. The chances of conflict increased when these critical points were accompanied by changes in national leadership. Ultimately, Carmiel hopes to develop a Conflict Alert System that would help predict and prevent violent conflict 6 to 24 months in advance of the possible triggering events. In his spare time, Carmiel enjoys fantasy sports, travel baseball and theoretical physics. He was state winner of the National Peace Essay Contest, and he intends to pursue a political science career after attending Stanford or UC-Berkeley. Carmiel attends Paul D. Schreiber High School and is the son of Stanley Schickler and Lucy Effron.